Shanghai Jahwa (600315) performance review: e-commerce fee release weighs on 2019 results 2020 Focus on Herborist brand adjustment effect
The 2019 results were lower than we expected Shanghai Jahwa’s 2019 results: revenue 75.
97 ppm, +6 for ten years.
4%; net profit attributable to mother 5.
570,000 yuan, + 3% per year, corresponding to a profit of 0.
83 yuan; deduct non-net profit 3.
7.9 billion a year-16.
9%, lower than our expectation, mainly due to increased marketing efforts.
By quarter, 19Q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 revenues were +5 respectively twice.
0% / + 9.
1% / + 3.
3% / + 8.
4%, net profit is +54 each year.
8% / + 26.
8%, in which Q4 revenue growth accelerated month-on-month, net profit fell sharply, mainly due to the double eleven e-commerce marketing and promotion.
Development trend 1, the main brands are facing certain growth pressure, and the emerging brands are performing well.
① By brand: We expect the performance of the first echelon brand Liushen and Herborist to be under pressure; the second echelon brand Goff, the US and Canada have improved; the emerging brand benefits from the launch of new products and KOL marketing, and has achieved rapid growth.Qichu’s revenue for ten years + 25%, Yuze + 80%, Jiaan + 40%; ② By channel: The company will focus on online channels in 2019. We expect e-commerce growth to exceed 20%.The overall speed of the offline channels remained flat, with the CS channel increasing steadily and slightly, and the department store channel’s horizontal extension still facing pressure from passenger flow.
Looking forward to 2020, we expect that the effects of the creation of Herborist’s main brands will remain to be seen. At the same time, affected by the epidemic, most of the income-side performance may still face some pressure.
2. Increased e-commerce marketing investment has dragged down performance.
From the perspective of profitability, the gross profit margin dropped by 0.
9ppt to 61.
9%, mainly due to changes in sales structure and increase in new plant costs.
From the perspective of expenses, the expense ratio will increase by 1 in the long term.
3ppt, mainly due to the increase in sales expense ratio by 1.
5ppt, of which Q4 single season affected by the increase in the speed of e-commerce launch, the sales expense ratio increased by 5.
Looking forward to 2020, we expect that due to the influence of e-commerce channels, the release of fees will remain at a high level.
The final deduction of non-net interest rate is reduced by one level.
4ppt to 5%.
In addition, non-recurring projects such as compensation for biotechnology demolition of subsidiaries have partially boosted performance.
Maximum net interest rate 7.
3%, a slight decrease of 0 a year.
3. In 2020, pay attention to the adjustment effect of Herborist brand and the pace of release of marketing expenses.
Looking forward to 2020, on the brand side, the company will continue to focus on building Herborist, and improve sales performance through the continuous new product launch and IP marketing of the Taiji series; Qichu, Yuze and other emerging brands are expected to continue rapid growth.
On the channel and marketing side, the company plans to continue to strengthen the exploration of new models such as KOL and live e-commerce, and strengthen online sales.
The follow-up effect of sales promotion still needs to be tracked. The profit forecast and estimated value were affected 南宁桑拿 by the epidemic, the expansion of brand launch and the adjustment of accounting standards, which lowered the profit forecast for 2020/21.
5% / 19.
7% to 0.
04 yuan / share.
The current total corresponds to a 32x P / E ratio in 2020.
We maintain our Outperform rating and lower our target price by 15% to 33 yuan based on the profit forecast adjustment, corresponding to a 37x P / E ratio in 2020, which has 18% more upside than currently underway.
Competition in the risk industry has continued to intensify, and the impact of the epidemic has exceeded expectations.